How are National Merit Semifinalists chosen, and when do October 2026 testers hear?

As of November 2026: National Merit Semifinalists are the highest-scoring PSAT/NMSQT entrants in each state, more than 16,000 students in the 2028 competition, and juniors who took the test in October 2026 will hear in early September 2027. About 95% of Semifinalists are expected to become Finalists in February 2028.

For juniors in the 2026-27 school year who took the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and graduate in 2028: how the Selection Index works, why each state has its own cutoff, and what to do while you wait.

By Nick Standlea, Test Prep Gurus. Figures may be quoted with attribution to Test Prep Gurus.

More than 16,000 Semifinalists, picked state by state Semifinalists are the highest-scoring entrants in each state. The group is less than 1% of the nation's high school graduating seniors.

October 2026 testers hear in early September 2027 About 50,000 juniors become high scorers. About 34,000 are named Commended Students, and more than 16,000 are named Semifinalists.

About 95% of Semifinalists become Finalists Over 15,000 students are expected to reach Finalist standing in February 2028. To get there, they must meet the academic and other requirements, including a confirming SAT or ACT score.

The 2028 National Merit competition, step by step

These are the steps and dates for juniors who took the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and graduate in 2028.

Step	Figure or date	In the guide's words
Selection Index formula	2 x Reading and Writing + Math, divided by 10; range 48 to 228	NMSC Selection Index Score 2RW + M 10 48-228
High scorers recognized	about 50,000	more than two-thirds of the 50,000 high scorers will be notified through their high schools that they have qualified as Commended Students
Commended Students	about 34,000, September 2027	In September 2027, more than two-thirds (about 34,000) of the high scorers will be designated Commended Students.
Semifinalists	more than 16,000, early September 2027	In early September 2027, about one-third of the 50,000 high scorers will be notified that they have qualified as Semifinalists-the highest-scoring entrants in each state.
How Semifinalist cutoffs work	set per state, in proportion to each state's share of graduating seniors	the number of Semifinalists in a state that enrolls approximately 2% of the nation's graduating seniors would be about 320 (2% of the 16,000 Semifinalists)
Semifinalists as a share of seniors	less than 1% of the nation's graduating seniors	More than 16,000 of the high scorers, representing less than 1% of the nation's high school graduating seniors, will qualify as Semifinalists.
Commended cutoff	a national Selection Index score that may change each year	a nationally applied Selection Index qualifying score that may vary from year to year
Finalists	about 95% of Semifinalists (over 15,000), February 2028	In February 2028, Semifinalists who meet academic and other requirements will be notified that they have advanced to Finalist standing. About 95% (over 15,000) of the Semifinalists are expected to become Finalists

State Semifinalist cutoff scores are not published in the Fall 2026 PSAT/NMSQT Student Guide and are not shown here.

How are National Merit Semifinalists chosen?

National Merit Semifinalists are the highest-scoring PSAT/NMSQT entrants in each state, and more than 16,000 students will be named in the 2028 competition. That group is less than 1% of the nation's high school graduating seniors.

The choice rests on the Selection Index, a score built from the PSAT/NMSQT section scores. Each state has its own Semifinalist cutoff. So a student is compared with other juniors in the same state, not with the whole country.

This page is for juniors in the 2026-27 school year who took the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 and will graduate in 2028. Their contest is the 2028 National Merit Scholarship competition.

When will students who took the October 2026 PSAT find out?

Students who took the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 will learn in early September 2027 whether they are Semifinalists. That is the start of their senior year.

Commended Students are also named in September 2027, and they are told through their high schools. Finalists hear later, in February 2028.

We tell families to mark early September 2027 on the calendar now. The wait is long. Knowing the date helps you plan the months in between instead of guessing.

What is the Selection Index?

The Selection Index is 2 times the Reading and Writing score plus the Math score, divided by 10, and it runs from 48 to 228.

Reading and Writing counts twice in that formula. That means a gain in Reading and Writing moves the Selection Index more than the same gain in Math.

Our rule is to look at the Selection Index, not the total score, when a family asks about National Merit. The total score is what colleges see. The Selection Index is what decides this contest.

What is the difference between a high scorer, a Commended Student and a Semifinalist?

About 50,000 juniors become high scorers in the 2028 competition, and they are named either Commended Students, about 34,000 of them, or Semifinalists, more than 16,000 of them.

Commended Students are named in September 2027. They clear a national Selection Index cutoff that may vary from year to year. We do not print a number for that cutoff, because it is set nationally each year. We tell our students who are named Commended to list the honor on their college applications.

Semifinalists are named in early September 2027. They are the highest-scoring entrants in each state, and they are the only group that can move on to the Finalist step.

Why is the Semifinalist cutoff different in each state?

Each state gets Semifinalist spots in proportion to its share of the nation's graduating seniors, so a state with about 2% of those seniors would have about 320 Semifinalists.

The cutoff in each state is the Selection Index score that fills that state's spots. A state with many high scorers ends up with a higher cutoff. A state with fewer ends up with a lower one.

We do not print state cutoff scores on this page. The 2028 cutoffs are not published in the PSAT/NMSQT Student Guide, and we will not guess at them. A guess can make a student feel safe or hopeless for no good reason. Our students do better when they focus on the scores they can still control.

How does a Semifinalist become a Finalist?

About 95% of Semifinalists, over 15,000 students, are expected to become Finalists in February 2028.

To move up, a Semifinalist must send in an application, be endorsed by the school, have a record of high academic performance, and confirm the PSAT score with an SAT or ACT score.

Those steps are the academic and other requirements that Finalists must meet. Most Semifinalists meet them. Still, none of them happens on its own, and each one takes the student's own effort.

What can a junior do now to get ready for the Finalist step?

A junior can start now on the SAT or ACT score that a Semifinalist needs to confirm the PSAT result for the February 2028 Finalist step.

We tell families not to wait for the September 2027 news. If the confirming score is already done by then, the student has a lighter load in a busy fall of senior year.

Grades matter too, because Finalists need a record of high academic performance. Strong junior year grades help with that, and they help every college application as well.

A good SAT or ACT score helps even if a student is not named a Semifinalist. The same score goes on college applications, so the work is never wasted.

What should we do this month?

This month, have your junior take a free mock SAT and a free mock ACT with Test Prep Gurus to see which test fits better.

Call us at 949.229.5359 or start at https://www.prepgurus.com/take-the-next-step. We will go over the results with you and help you choose a test date.

Our rule is to plan 6 to 12 weeks of prep before a test date that counts. We also tell our students to prepare for the whole test every sitting, not just the part they like least. That habit builds the confirming score a Semifinalist needs, and it serves every student who is applying to college.

Questions parents ask

When will October 2026 PSAT takers learn if they are National Merit Semifinalists?
Students who took the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026 will learn in early September 2027 whether they are Semifinalists.

How is the National Merit Selection Index calculated?
The Selection Index is 2 times the Reading and Writing score plus the Math score, divided by 10, and it runs from 48 to 228.

Why is the National Merit Semifinalist cutoff different in each state?
Each state gets Semifinalist spots in proportion to its share of the nation's graduating seniors, so a state with about 2% of those seniors would have about 320 Semifinalists.

How many Semifinalists become Finalists?
About 95% of Semifinalists, over 15,000 students, are expected to become Finalists in February 2028.

What does a Semifinalist need to do to become a Finalist?
To move up, a Semifinalist must send in an application, be endorsed by the school, have a record of high academic performance, and confirm the PSAT score with an SAT or ACT score.

Ready to plan the next test date? Free mock SAT and free mock ACT at Test Prep Gurus, then a plan built on the result: prepgurus.com/take-the-next-step or 949.229.5359.

Method and sources: Every figure and date on this page comes from the Fall 2026 PSAT/NMSQT Student Guide, published by College Board and the National Merit Scholarship Corporation, and applies to the 2028 competition for students who took the PSAT/NMSQT in October 2026. The counts are the guide's own expected, approximate figures, not final totals. The guide does not publish state Semifinalist cutoffs or a number for the Commended cutoff, so neither appears here.